Abstract
Rising air temperatures are the main reason for the expected reduction in land suitability for coffee cultivation under climate change in Central America. One of the reasons farmers use shade trees is to create a cooler microclimate in coffee plantations located in warming areas; therefore, adjusting the shade levels could alleviate future high temperatures. Even though data on expected climatic changes are available, no studies have addressed the cooling potential of shading in coffee production systems. In this study, we use regional climate information (RCP 4.5) and a simple shade model to explore the potential of shading as an adaptation practice in the coffee areas in Central America. A model was developed to estimate the required shade levels for Coffea arabica L. based on mean air temperature. Modeled and observed shade data were compared. Results indicate that compared to 2000, an overall increment of 23 ± 18% of shading would be required to alleviate the warming conditions by 2050. The shading will be more beneficial to coffee areas at medium and high altitudes than to areas at low ones. Also, the number of coffee areas that require dense shade levels (shading > 60%) may double by 2050. This would lead to a boost in tree biomass (carbon content) but also increase the competition for the coffee plants and consequently affect coffee yields. Trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, and productivity objectives are expected in the coffee areas in the future.
Graphical abstract
Keywords
Climate risk
;
Climate suitability
;
Coffee sustainability
;
Ecological modeling
;
Decision support tool
;
Missing climate data
Pourquoi sont-ils invités à la télé en pleine canicule, ceux qui ont dit que le GIEC exagère ?
Tous ceux qui ont minimisé, tous ceux qui ont dit que la technologie allait nous sauver, que les écolos étaient des terroristes, qui ont affirmé qu’il faisait froid en hiver, que c'était des cycles, que l’humain n'avait rien à voir avec ça. Tous ceux qui ont un jour employé le concept aberrant “d’écologie punitive” (c’est cette canicule qui est punitive) ceux qui ont dit que c’était une “idéologie” :
que font encore ces gens à la radio et à la télévision à nous dire que c’est juste un problème de clim ?